【申万固收|地方债周报】下周地方债供给明显放量——地方债周度跟踪20260123

Group 1 - The issuance and net financing of local bonds have increased compared to the previous period, with total issuance/net financing for the period of January 19-25, 2026, reaching 231.57 billion yuan/203.16 billion yuan, up from 74.84 billion yuan/68.57 billion yuan in the previous period [3] - The weighted average issuance term of local bonds has shortened to 15.88 years from 19.45 years in the previous period [3][4] - The issuance of new general bonds is lagging behind previous years, while the issuance of new special bonds has accelerated significantly since late January [3][5] Group 2 - The planned issuance of local bonds for the first quarter of 2026 totals 23,587 billion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2025 [3][13] - The issuance schedule for January and March 2026 is larger than in previous years due to the later timing of the Spring Festival [3][18] - The issuance of special new bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts has reached 1,023 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 1,667 billion yuan for replacing hidden debts [3][11] Group 3 - The yield spread between local bonds and national bonds has narrowed, with the 10-year and 30-year local bond spreads decreasing to 21.02 BP and 14.29 BP, respectively [19][22] - The weekly turnover rate of local bonds has increased slightly to 0.66% from 0.64% in the previous period [19][26] - The current 10-year local bonds still offer a certain level of cost-effectiveness, with the spread expected to fluctuate between 30-35 BP at the upper limit and 5-10 BP at the lower limit [3][19]