“申”度解盘 | 权重股和中小创剪刀差越拉越大，后市如何看?

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a significant divergence, with blue-chip stocks following the lead of central Huijin, while small and medium-sized stocks should have stop-loss lines set and follow the trend [6][12]. Market Review - The market has shown a stark contrast, with large-cap blue-chip stocks seeking a bottom while small-cap stocks are performing well. Since the beginning of 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown a performance of 3.40%, -1.74%, and -1.54%, while the CSI 500 has performed at 7.92%, 2.18%, and 4.34%, resulting in a widening gap of over 15% [7][11]. Volume and Fund Flow Analysis - A notable change since the beginning of 2026 is the rapid increase in trading volume, with the first week of the year seeing a volume surpassing 3.5 trillion, and the following week reaching 4 trillion. The margin financing has increased from 2.54 trillion to a peak of 2.714 trillion, marking a rise of 6.85% [11]. Policy Changes - On January 14, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved an adjustment to the margin financing ratio, increasing the minimum margin requirement from 80% to 100%. This change indicates a need for a healthier stock market and a controlled influx of funds to mitigate risk accumulation [11]. Investment Recommendations - For ordinary investors, it is advisable to follow the steps of central Huijin when buying ETFs below 3,000 points and in the 3,200-3,400 point range. If investors have their own logical judgment based on favorable fiscal and monetary policies, they may not need to make additional moves [12][13]. - For growth stocks like CSI 500, ChiNext, and STAR Market, which are in a phase of rising volume and price, it is crucial to follow the trend and set stop-loss lines, such as exiting if the 20-day moving average is breached [13].