“存款搬家”的几个事实（国金宏观孙永乐）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "deposit migration" in the context of declining deposit interest rates and the expiration of high-interest fixed-term deposits, highlighting the potential shifts in asset allocation among residents [3][41]. Group 1: Background and Context - The current discussion on "deposit migration" corresponds to the "excess savings" issue discussed three years ago, where residents significantly increased their allocation to fixed-term deposits due to factors like real estate downturn and declining consumer sentiment. In 2022, new household deposits reached 17.8 trillion yuan, with fixed-term deposits accounting for 13.7 trillion yuan. In 2023, new household deposits fell to 16.6 trillion yuan, but fixed-term deposits still made up 96% of this amount [4][41]. - The formation of excess savings from 2022 to 2023 can be attributed to three main sources: a decline in consumer willingness to spend, a shift of funds from real estate purchases to financial investments, and a reallocation of financial assets where residents redeemed wealth management products in favor of deposits [4][9]. Group 2: Future Trends - Starting in 2024, the willingness of residents to allocate funds to deposits is expected to decline, with new fixed-term deposits projected to be around 12 trillion yuan for both 2024 and 2025. The proportion of new deposits to new financial assets is estimated to drop to 68%, significantly lower than the 89% and 79% seen in 2022 and 2023, respectively [9][10]. - By 2026, the maturity of fixed-term deposits for residents is estimated to be around 70 trillion yuan, with a peak in the first quarter. The total maturity of fixed-term deposits is projected to be between 104 trillion and 111 trillion yuan, with household deposits accounting for 65% of this amount [16][17]. Group 3: Deposit Renewal Rates - The renewal rate for deposits is approximately 90%, indicating that most maturing deposits will be reinvested rather than withdrawn from the banking system. The renewal rate has fluctuated, reaching 95% in 2022 and 2023, but is expected to drop to around 88% in 2024 [20][21]. - If the renewal rate decreases to 80%, the potential outflow of deposits could be around 14 trillion yuan, while maintaining a 90% renewal rate would result in an outflow of approximately 7 trillion yuan [21]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Shifts - The primary destinations for migrating deposits are low-risk assets, such as wealth management products and money market funds, while the allocation to risk assets is influenced by market conditions. The majority of residents are risk-averse, with 96% of their financial assets allocated to low-risk and no-risk assets [23][24]. - In 2025, it is anticipated that residents will increase their holdings in money market funds by approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, wealth management products by 2.8 trillion yuan, and insurance by 4.1 trillion yuan. The relationship between insurance and deposits may evolve as deposit rates decline [29][30]. Group 5: Market Behavior and Implications - The behavior of residents regarding high-risk assets is largely dependent on market conditions, with significant increases in holdings during bullish markets. For instance, the net value of bond funds held by individuals rose from 399 billion yuan in 2020 to 1.8 trillion yuan in 2024, but growth slowed in 2025 [24][25]. - The article emphasizes that the migration of deposits does not necessarily correlate with an increase in early loan repayments, as the majority of maturing deposits are from short-term fixed deposits, which typically have lower interest rates compared to existing mortgage rates [38].