兴证王涵 | 日元日债稳住了吗？——多极化进程的视角

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural changes in the Japanese yen and Japanese government bonds (JGBs) amid a shifting global order from unipolarity to multipolarity, emphasizing that these changes cannot be attributed solely to short-term economic fluctuations but must be understood within a broader narrative framework [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context of Japan's Geopolitical Role - Japan's geopolitical significance has evolved through two main phases: during the Cold War, it served as a critical support base for the U.S. in Asia, and in the post-Cold War unipolar order, its value shifted to the financial domain [10][11]. - In the Cold War period, Japan acted as a supply base for U.S. military activities and showcased Western capitalist values, enhancing U.S. strategic goals in Asia [11]. - Post-Cold War, Japan's role diminished in military terms but gained importance as a capital-rich nation, providing a stable low-interest environment that facilitated U.S. capital leverage globally [12]. Group 2: Transition to a Multipolar Order - The transition to a multipolar order has made Japan's position increasingly precarious, as the U.S. reduces its reliance on Japan as a financial lever while expecting it to take on more regional security responsibilities [2][18]. - The decline of U.S. hard power has weakened its soft power, leading to a reduced demand for Japan as a tool for capital expansion, which is reflected in the volatility of the yen and JGBs [18][21]. - Japan's geopolitical risks are heightened as it is pushed to the forefront of regional power dynamics, undermining its status as a safe asset [21][22]. Group 3: Implications for Financial Markets - Despite short-term interventions by the Japanese government to stabilize market sentiment, the underlying fundamentals of the yen and JGBs remain fragile due to the ongoing geopolitical shifts [3][21]. - The trend of "de-securitization" of Japanese assets is a specific manifestation of the broader narrative of multipolarity, indicating a fundamental change in global asset pricing logic [22]. - Long-term trends suggest a shift of global capital and growth focus towards emerging markets, which will continue to reshape the foundational logic of asset pricing [22].