研报 | 欧盟放宽燃油车禁令，预估2030年全球增程式电动车年销量将可达300万台

Core Insights - The article discusses the growing importance of Range-Extended Electric Vehicles (REEV) as a transitional option for automakers moving towards full electrification, especially following the EU's recent policy adjustments regarding the ban on fuel vehicles by 2035 [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends and Projections - TrendForce estimates that global REEV sales will reach 3 million units by 2030, doubling from 2025 levels, supported by policy flexibility, technological maturity, and market acceptance [2]. - The EU has relaxed its original "100% zero emissions" requirement for new cars to an average reduction of 90%, allowing for offsets through low-carbon steel and synthetic fuels, pending approval from member states and the European Parliament [2]. Group 2: REEV Characteristics and Advantages - REEVs are similar to Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) but utilize the internal combustion engine solely for generating electricity, providing a driving experience closer to Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) with lower carbon emissions compared to PHEVs [3]. - The dual power supply from both the internal combustion engine and battery pack significantly reduces range anxiety for drivers [3]. Group 3: Market Penetration and Key Players - The penetration rate of REEVs in the global new car market has increased from less than 3% to around 4% by Q3 2025, with Chinese manufacturers like Seres Group, Li Auto, and Changan Automobile leading the market due to lower vehicle prices and battery cost advantages [5]. - European manufacturers such as BMW, Volkswagen, Volvo, and Stellantis have announced plans to introduce REEV models by 2026, viewing them as a crucial transition before the full maturity of the electric vehicle market [5]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Challenges - The REEV architecture, which includes an internal combustion engine, power battery, and pure electric drive system, presents opportunities for the supply chain, particularly if penetration rates increase [5]. - However, the complexity of REEV systems and their concentration in high-end SUV segments pose challenges for widespread adoption, alongside lower energy conversion efficiency compared to BEVs [5].