摩根士丹利2026年十大预测：AI能力分化加剧，科技巨头加速整合能源设施

Core Insights - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman acknowledges that the development of the ChatGPT-5 series has led to an imbalance in capabilities, focusing too much on programming and reasoning at the expense of general writing skills. The company plans to recalibrate its approach to develop a more balanced general-purpose model [5][9][8]. Group 1: Software Development Paradigm Shift - The demand for engineers is expected to increase significantly, as their focus will shift from coding and debugging to higher-level tasks of guiding systems to achieve goals. This change will lead to a rise in personalized software tailored for individuals or small groups [10][11]. - Altman predicts that the global GDP will increasingly be generated through this new approach to software engineering, where more people will be able to direct computers to fulfill their needs [11][21]. Group 2: AI Model Evolution - Altman forecasts that future models will learn new skills faster than humans, achieving milestones such as understanding complex tools with minimal instruction [4][63]. - The focus on speed in model output is becoming as important as cost reduction, with users willing to pay more for faster results [12][48]. Group 3: AI Safety and Resilience - Altman expresses concerns about potential AI-related risks, particularly in biological safety by 2026. He advocates for a shift from a blocking strategy to enhancing system resilience to manage these risks effectively [6][14][72]. - The approach to AI safety should evolve to build a robust infrastructure that can handle the inherent risks associated with AI technologies [72][75]. Group 4: Economic Implications - In a world where AI significantly reduces production costs, human attention and originality will become the most valuable and scarce resources in business competition [7]. - Altman emphasizes that the economic landscape will change dramatically, enabling individuals to create software that previously required large teams, thus democratizing software development [40][41].