利润修复来自何处？——12月工业企业利润数据解读【陈兴团队·华福宏观】

Core Viewpoint - December saw a decline in revenue for industrial enterprises, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while profits improved with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, marking a significant turnaround from the previous month's -13.1% [2][11] Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - The profit margin growth in December was a key support for the overall profit improvement, with a notable recovery in profit rates [11][16] - The revenue decline was slightly offset by a narrowing of price drag, but overall revenue contraction still impacted profitability [11][16] - The year-on-year profit growth of 5.3% in December was a significant increase of 18.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first year-end profit increase since 2018 [11][14] Group 2: Currency Impact - The appreciation of the RMB since late 2025 has led to a return of overseas profits, with the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales differences indicating a trend towards repatriating profits [5][11] - The expectation of RMB appreciation has historically been associated with an increase in the ratio of bank foreign exchange settlement differences to trade balances, reaching 25.9% in 2025, the second-highest since 2015 [5] Group 3: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong profit growth, significantly outpacing the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises [6][14] - In December, the mining, raw materials, and processing assembly industries saw improvements in profit, while the consumer goods manufacturing sector continued to face pressure [14][16] - The high-tech manufacturing sector reported a profit growth of 13.3% year-on-year, exceeding the average growth rate of large-scale industrial enterprises by 12.7 percentage points [14] Group 4: Inventory and Demand - The nominal inventory growth rate declined to 3.9% in December, with actual inventory growth also falling, indicating weak domestic demand [9][17] - The consumer goods manufacturing sector is actively reducing inventory, while the equipment manufacturing sector is primarily focused on replenishing stock, reflecting the contrasting performance of these industries [9][17] - The production turnover days for industrial enterprises decreased to 19.9 days, suggesting ongoing operational pressures despite seasonal improvements in sales rates [17]