AI抢走存储和金属，车企利润率12月跌至1.8%

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry chain is facing a profitability recovery challenge, driven by rising costs and supply chain pressures, particularly in the context of competition for storage capacity with AI data centers and other industries [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance and Profitability - The automotive industry in 2025 reported revenues of 1,117.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, while costs rose to 984.98 billion yuan, up 8.1%, resulting in a profit of 46.1 billion yuan, which only increased by 0.6% [2]. - In December 2025, the automotive industry's profit plummeted to 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.4%, with profit margins dropping to 1.8% [3]. - The data indicates a disconnect between sales growth and profit recovery, as the industry expands in volume but fails to restore profitability [4]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Cost Pressures - The low profit margins in the automotive sector are not solely an issue for car manufacturers but also impose pricing and cash flow constraints on upstream suppliers [5]. - The automotive industry is facing significant cost pressures from rising prices of memory chips, particularly DDR4 and DDR5, as it competes with AI data centers and mobile devices for the same resources [6][9]. - Concerns about a potential storage chip supply crisis in 2026 have been raised, with expectations that supply satisfaction may fall below 50% [7]. Group 3: Material Costs and Profitability Impact - The costs of metals and battery materials are rising, further eroding profit margins. For instance, a typical mid-sized smart electric vehicle uses approximately 200 kg of aluminum and 80 kg of copper, with costs increasing by about 600 yuan and 1,200 yuan per vehicle, respectively [13][14]. - The simultaneous rise in raw material and key component costs may disrupt the traditional "allocation-transfer" chain, leading to rapid compression of vehicle profit margins [15]. - The competitive landscape in the Chinese market makes it difficult for car manufacturers to pass on increased costs to consumers, leading some to secure production capacity and long-term procurement agreements as a strategy to manage costs [17]. Group 4: Implications for the Lithium Battery Industry Chain - The rising costs of lithium, copper, aluminum, and storage are reshaping the operational environment for the lithium battery industry chain. When new costs arise from these materials and storage, and vehicle prices cannot increase, the immediate response is often to redistribute pressure within the supply chain [18]. - Even as sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow, upstream battery, material, and equipment companies may not experience a corresponding recovery in profitability [19]. - The long-term low profit margins in the automotive sector may lead to increased pressure on battery manufacturers to reduce costs more rapidly to offset concessions made to the vehicle end [20].