2026达沃斯观察：世界进入交易时代？｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Davos Forum highlighted a new era characterized by transactions, chips, uncertainty, and multipolar games, with "China" frequently mentioned in various discussions, indicating its significant yet understated presence in global geopolitics [4][6]. Group 1: Technology and Economic Perspectives - The forum showcased a stark contrast between technological optimism, led by figures like Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang, who stated that AI is becoming a new infrastructure and triggering the largest infrastructure build in human history, and a macroeconomic pessimism expressed by political leaders concerned about trade fragmentation and global recession risks [5][6]. - Elon Musk's unexpected appearance fueled the optimism, predicting unprecedented economic expansion if AI becomes nearly costless and robots are widely deployed, leading humanity towards unprecedented wealth [5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Dynamics - Discussions at the forum inevitably centered on US-China relations, with both countries serving as a default "control group" in debates about supply chain security and technological competition [6]. - The presence of former President Trump and his delegation marked a significant shift, as the US aimed to assert itself as the rule-maker and price-setter in global affairs, transforming the forum into a platform for "transactional geopolitics" [8][9]. Group 3: Global Reactions and Adaptations - Countries reacted strongly to the rise of transactional geopolitics, with Canada emerging as a notable advocate for middle powers to unite for self-protection, emphasizing the need for negotiation to avoid being sidelined [11]. - The European Union is accelerating its strategic autonomy, with leaders expressing a desire to distance themselves from US influence and re-establish their bargaining power [11][12]. Group 4: The Future of Global Governance - The forum underscored a shift from multilateralism to a transactional approach, where sovereignty, alliances, and even peace are viewed as negotiable assets, fundamentally altering the international system [15]. - The discussions indicated a growing trend where countries are learning to navigate and leverage transactional logic to secure their interests, often at the expense of third-party considerations [13].