中金 • 全球研究 | 日本外汇干预: 日美联合汇率检查，日元能持续升值吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Japanese yen is likely influenced by a "rate check" conducted by Japan and the United States, rather than direct "foreign exchange intervention" [3][4]. Group 1: Rate Check and Its Implications - A "rate check" is a preparatory action for foreign exchange intervention, where central banks inquire about market prices without executing trades, thereby influencing market sentiment [5]. - The intensity of a rate check is stronger than verbal intervention but less than actual foreign exchange intervention, serving as a precursor to potential intervention [5]. - Following a recent Bank of Japan meeting, the yen appreciated significantly, suggesting that market speculation about a rate check may have prompted buying of yen [6][9]. Group 2: U.S. Involvement and Market Dynamics - The U.S. is reportedly conducting its own rate checks, which have a more substantial impact on yen appreciation compared to Japan's actions due to the U.S.'s greater capacity for intervention [9][10]. - The U.S. may assist Japan to stabilize its capital markets, as instability in Japan could lead to actions that disrupt U.S. markets [10]. - Historical precedents show that the U.S. has previously engaged in similar supportive actions for other countries facing currency crises [10]. Group 3: Future Expectations and Conditions for Yen Appreciation - The potential for sustained yen appreciation is limited; significant global risk events would be necessary for a trend reversal, with a maximum appreciation limit projected at a USD/JPY rate of 140 [19]. - Japan's ongoing economic challenges, including a dual deficit in both capital and current accounts, hinder structural yen appreciation [20]. - The capital account is characterized by significant outflows due to direct investments abroad, while the current account appears to be in deficit when considering actual cash flows [20]. Group 4: Historical Context and Intervention Effectiveness - Past foreign exchange interventions have shown that while they can stabilize the currency temporarily, they do not change the overall direction of the exchange rate [17]. - Japan has previously engaged in unilateral interventions without the need for coordinated efforts with other countries, indicating a willingness to act independently if necessary [17]. - The effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions typically lasts only a few months, serving more as a "speed bump" rather than a permanent solution [17].