中金：宏观视角下的存款搬家与股市定价——存款到期的股债汇影响（一）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "net new funds" over "new funds" in relation to stock market performance, highlighting that the willingness of residents to invest is closely tied to income expectations [2][3][5]. Group 1: New Funds vs. Net New Funds - "New funds" do not equate to "net new funds"; the latter is crucial for stock market increases, as it considers both inflows and outflows [3][5]. - The relationship between stock price increases and the growth rate of new funds is stronger than that with the absolute amount of new funds [5][6]. - Historical data shows that the absolute scale of new funds does not strongly correlate with stock market performance, while the year-on-year growth rate of new funds does [6][9]. Group 2: Investment Willingness and Income Expectations - The willingness of residents to invest in the stock market is a key variable influenced by income expectations, which are closely linked to employment and inflation [17][23]. - High net worth individuals and insurance funds may invest independently of general income expectations, but their impact may diminish in 2026 [26][27]. - The article proposes a framework to analyze income expectations based on employment and service inflation, indicating that if income expectations stabilize or improve, the growth rate of new funds could be promising, albeit lower than in 2025 [2][34]. Group 3: Indicators and Predictions for 2026 - The article suggests that monitoring service CPI and non-manufacturing PMI can provide insights into income confidence, which is crucial for predicting market behavior in 2026 [34][39]. - The analysis indicates that if income expectations do not improve, the growth rate of funds allocated to the stock market may slow down, potentially leading to a more subdued stock market performance [49][50]. - The article also discusses the challenges of predicting market behavior based on fundamental economic indicators, emphasizing the need to consider non-fundamental factors [52][53].