黄金涨势不减：申万期货早间评论-20260128

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US dollar, with President Trump stating that he is not concerned about the dollar's decline, which has led to a drop in the dollar index to a four-year low of 95.7905, down over 1% [1][7] - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of Q4 2025, 275,000 technology-oriented SMEs received loans, with a loan approval rate of 50.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The total balance of RMB loans from financial institutions reached 271.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, with an annual increase of 16.27 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have seen a significant rebound, with gold prices reaching new historical highs due to geopolitical tensions and a loose liquidity environment, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][19] - The market is concerned about the sustainability of US debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has weakened the dollar's credibility and increased central bank demand for gold [2][19] - The expansion of gold and silver ETFs has contributed to the rise in precious metal prices, with silver experiencing larger short-term gains but potential profit-taking pressure, while gold remains more stable [2][19] Group 3 - Oil prices increased by 1.54% following President Trump's comments about potential diplomatic engagement with Iran and easing tensions in Venezuela, where a comprehensive oil law reform is being advanced [3][14] - The average daily production of US crude oil was reported at 13.732 million barrels, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels year-on-year [3][14] Group 4 - The US stock market, particularly the NASDAQ, has shown positive performance, driven by a combination of technological cycles, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas capital [4][12] - The market's transition from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth is noted, with expectations for continued upward movement in the stock market supported by supply-side reforms and policy effects [4][12]