Core Viewpoint - The memory industry, once considered a "cyclical disaster," has experienced a remarkable turnaround driven by production cuts from major manufacturers, price rebounds, and increased demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) due to the AI wave, leading to significant stock price increases for related companies [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Recovery Stages - Stage One: From Despair to Frenzy The memory industry faced its toughest winter from 2022 to mid-2023, with major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron accumulating excess inventory due to frozen consumer demand. In response, these companies implemented unprecedented large-scale production cuts, leading to a recovery in DRAM and NAND Flash prices, which began to rise by 10% to 15% each quarter [3][4]. - Stage Two: Calm During Disposal Period Stocks placed under disposal status indicate excessive market heat, with regulatory measures aimed at cooling speculation. During this period, liquidity is restricted, leading to price stabilization. The memory sector continued to perform strongly, as investors recognized that stocks under disposal were often strong concept stocks with high consensus [4]. - Stage Three: Four New Drivers for Continued Growth The memory industry's positive outlook is supported by a super cycle driven by AI, with four key new drivers expected to fuel stock price increases over the next 6 to 12 months. The first driver is the HBM's displacement effect, as major manufacturers shift capital expenditures to HBM production, tightening supply for standard DRAM [5][6]. Group 2: Key Market Dynamics - AI PC and AI Mobile Demand The demand for memory in AI PCs and mobile devices is surging, with AI PCs now starting at 16GB and expected to move towards 32GB or even 64GB. This demand is critical for running large language models effectively [6][7]. - Transition from DDR4 to DDR5 The price gap between DDR4 and DDR5 has narrowed to 15% to 20%, facilitating a transition to DDR5 as the mainstream memory type. DDR5 offers higher average selling prices (ASP) and gross margins compared to DDR4 due to its technical complexity [7]. - NAND Flash Market Recovery The NAND Flash market is witnessing a turnaround, with enterprise SSDs rapidly replacing traditional HDDs in data centers due to the high-speed data requirements of AI servers. This shift is driving increased demand for high-capacity, high-density enterprise SSDs [7][8].
存储芯片,狂飙300%
半导体芯闻·2026-01-28 10:31