李丰：2026，关于赚钱、AI与竞争逻辑，我的展望和预判

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the technological explosion of recent years is just the prologue, with true societal applications and industrial reshuffling beginning now, presenting new opportunities and dividends for the next 5 to 20 years [1][2] - The second half of the AI era will see China gaining advantages, particularly in the combination of AI and hardware, leveraging its manufacturing supply chain for industrial transformation and upgrades [1][2] - The ultimate competition in AI between China and the US will focus on data and energy, with the long-term advantage in these areas determining the outcome of great power competition [1][2] Group 2 - The discussion centers on whether AI represents a productivity revolution, with the importance of participation in AI depending on this belief [2][3] - Historical productivity revolutions have taken time to transition from technological emergence to significant societal impact, indicating that AI will also require a lengthy evolution [3][4] - The current AI wave is unprecedented due to the massive influx of capital, with a significant amount of liquidity in the market driving investment into AI technologies [12][23] Group 3 - The AI evolution has experienced four major waves, with significant breakthroughs leading to applications in facial recognition, autonomous driving, and AI in pharmaceuticals, particularly accelerated by the pandemic [8][10] - The current investment landscape is shifting towards applications that can generate revenue, moving from a focus on technology to practical implementations in various sectors [28][39] - The investment logic in the AI era emphasizes the need for substantial changes across front-end, mid-end, and back-end technologies to create successful companies [46][47] Group 4 - China's strategic opportunity lies in the integration of AI with strong industrial sectors, particularly through the "AI + manufacturing" initiative, which aims to leverage AI for various applications [57][60] - The development of AI applications in China is supported by advancements in hardware and supply chain efficiencies, allowing for competitive pricing and widespread adoption [60][62] - The future of AI applications will focus on vertical domain agents and AI-driven smart hardware, with a clear shift towards practical, revenue-generating solutions [51][39] Group 5 - The international relations landscape is shifting, potentially providing China with a strategic window to enhance its global influence and international business opportunities [74][76] - The RMB is expected to have appreciation potential but not significantly, as the structure of China's foreign trade is evolving towards higher value-added products [79][81] - Data governance is becoming a critical factor in the tech competition between China and the US, with the establishment of a national data bureau indicating a new phase in data management and utilization [90][92]