小心！商品市场的“轮动牛市”可能是个幻觉

Core Viewpoint - The recent commodity market is not characterized by a rotational bull market across different sectors and varieties, but rather by isolated interest from funds in certain products, indicating a lack of macroeconomic forces influencing the entire commodity market. Given that many products have reached high levels and there are signs of weaker products catching up, a prolonged adjustment period in the commodity market is anticipated [4][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The commodity market has seen rapid surges in specific star products such as gold, silver, corn, PTA, and styrene, leading to speculation about a rotational bull market. However, the market's recent volatility does not exhibit typical rotational characteristics [4][6]. - The traditional patterns of the commodity market can be categorized into three types: 1. Product Differentiation Pattern: Products move independently based on their fundamentals, typically occurring in the absence of significant macro themes [5]. 2. Leading Product Pattern: A clear leader, such as the black series during the 2016 supply-side reform, drives the market, with other products following its lead [5]. 3. Rotational Pattern: The summer of 2023 exemplified this, with a sequence of rotations among different sectors, although the current market displays a mix of characteristics from both rotational and leading product patterns [6]. Group 2: Chemical Products Outlook - There is a prevailing market sentiment that the commodity market is in a rotational bull phase, particularly with expectations for chemical products to take over the upward momentum. However, this assessment may be flawed [7]. - The performance of the non-ferrous metals, particularly copper and nickel, has shown significant gains over a prolonged period, but their current high levels and insufficient correction suggest limited potential for further increases [7]. - The chemical products sector, while showing some promise, faces challenges: the recent surge began from a relatively high point rather than a low base, indicating a rebound rather than a sustainable growth phase. Key products like styrene have already seen substantial gains, and the leading products lack the momentum for continued upward movement [7][8].