【广发宏观陈嘉荔】美联储1月暂停降息的关键信息

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% during the January 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting marks the first pause in the rate cut cycle that began in September 2025, with a slightly hawkish tone in the statement regarding economic growth, employment, and inflation [1][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The FOMC's decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged was anticipated by the market, with two officials voting against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1][4]. - The January 2026 FOMC statement described economic growth as "solid," an upgrade from the previous "moderate" characterization, indicating a more optimistic outlook [6][7]. - The assessment of the labor market showed signs of stabilization, with the unemployment rate reflecting a potential decrease in downward risks [6][7]. Group 2: Powell's Press Conference Insights - Powell's remarks were slightly dovish, suggesting that future rate cuts will depend on data, indicating that the rate cut cycle is not over yet [2][7]. - He expressed optimism about productivity improvements, linking them to stable economic growth despite a weakening labor market [2][8]. - Powell noted that current interest rates are at the upper end of the neutral range, implying there is still room for potential rate cuts [2][11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, market pricing for future rate cuts remained relatively stable, with a 47.5% probability for a rate cut by June 2026 [3][11]. - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.26%, while the 2-year yield increased by 3 basis points to 3.56% [3][11]. - The performance of U.S. stock indices was mixed, with the Dow Jones up by 0.02% and the S&P 500 down by 0.01%, while sectors such as semiconductors and healthcare showed strong performance [3][12].