CINNO Research·2026-01-29 03:57Core Viewpoint - The global AMOLED smartphone panel market is projected to reach approximately 920 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, marking a new historical high despite a slowdown in growth rate compared to previous years [2]. Market Growth - The growth in the AMOLED smartphone panel market is driven by sustained demand for high refresh rates, flexible displays, and low-power screens in high-end smartphones, along with the continued adoption of AMOLED technology in mid-range models [2]. - The slowdown in growth is attributed to the increasing penetration of AMOLED in smartphones, particularly in the mid-to-high-end market, which has reached saturation, thereby narrowing the space for new demand [2]. Cost Pressures - Rising costs of core components, such as memory chips, are increasing the overall BOM (Bill of Materials) cost pressure, leading manufacturers to control costs more strictly. Some brands are delaying the introduction of flexible AMOLED in mid-range models, which suppresses further expansion of AMOLED panel shipments [2]. Regional Market Share - In 2025, Korean manufacturers hold 49.4% of the global AMOLED smartphone panel market, while domestic manufacturers account for 50.6%, marking a 1.3 percentage point increase year-on-year and achieving a historic milestone of surpassing 50% for the first time [5]. Company Performance - Samsung Display's (SDC) AMOLED panel shipments are expected to grow by 0.7% year-on-year, with market share declining from 43.2% to 41.5%, primarily due to shrinking demand for rigid AMOLED panels and increased loss of orders for mid-to-low-end flexible screens [6]. - BOE's performance is notable, with a year-on-year shipment growth of 9.0%, securing a 16.3% market share, and maintaining its position as the leading domestic manufacturer, driven by penetration in the mid-range market and breakthroughs in the high-end market, especially in the foldable screen sector [6]. - Visionox's shipments are projected to grow by 3.3% year-on-year, with a market share of 11.1%, despite a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points, indicating stable development supported by solid technical competitiveness and customer collaboration in the mid-range market [6]. Fourth Quarter Insights - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the AMOLED smartphone panel market is expected to maintain strong demand due to domestic and international promotional activities and the release of new models, with shipments projected at approximately 260 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.2% [9]. - In the fourth quarter, Korean manufacturers are expected to hold a 49.2% market share, while domestic manufacturers will account for 50.8%, marking a 2.6 percentage point increase year-on-year, indicating an accelerated trend of domestic substitution [9]. Company Dynamics in Q4 - Samsung Display's AMOLED panel shipments are expected to grow by 7.0% year-on-year, with a market share of 40.7%, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points, although its market dominance continues to weaken [10]. - BOE's AMOLED panel shipments are projected to grow by 2.8% quarter-on-quarter, maintaining a stable market share of 15.5%, supported by accelerated technology iteration and optimized customer structure [10]. - Tianma's AMOLED panel shipments are expected to grow by 20.0% year-on-year, with a market share increase of 1.3 percentage points to 11.6%, benefiting from stable orders from key customers and well-matched capacity release [10].