独家洞察 | 美联储会议前瞻：降息按下暂停键，关键变量在于“人”（文末开奖）

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 3.50%-3.75% during the upcoming meeting, as recent economic data does not support a rate cut [4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of maintaining the interest rate at the January meeting is as high as 97.2%, while the chance of a 25 basis point cut is only 2.8% [5]. - By June, the probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 47.8%, but over 30% still expect rates to remain unchanged [5]. - The Federal Reserve has recently implemented three rate cuts, and the upcoming meeting may see a pause in further adjustments, with Chairman Powell likely to emphasize satisfaction with the current monetary policy stance [5]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The U.S. job market has cooled but has not deteriorated, and consumer spending remains robust, indicating that the economy is not on the brink of a typical recession [4]. - The PCE price index rose to 2.8% in November, still significantly above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, suggesting that a rate cut could exacerbate inflation [4]. Group 3: Leadership and Institutional Concerns - The focus is shifting towards the institutional aspects of the Federal Reserve, particularly with President Trump expected to announce a new chairperson soon [6][7]. - There are speculations that Powell may remain on the board after stepping down as chair, which could influence the balance of power within the FOMC [6][7]. - Analysts believe that even with a new chair, significant changes in interest rate policy would require consensus within the FOMC, rather than simply following presidential directives [7].