研报 | 存储器、面板、贵金属涨价影响电视品牌获利，2026年全球出货量恐下调

Core Insights - The television industry is facing rising costs due to increases in memory, panel, and precious metal prices, leading to a downward revision of the global TV shipment forecast for 2026 from a decrease of 0.3% to 0.6%, totaling approximately 194.81 million units [3][5] - The cost structure has made it difficult to maintain previous low pricing strategies, necessitating price increases for new models [5][6] - The share of memory in the Bill of Materials (BOM) cost for TVs has risen from 2.5-3% to 6-7% due to the price surge [5][7] Shipment Forecast - The global TV shipment for 2026 is projected to be 194.81 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [5][6] - Despite promotional events like the Super Bowl and FIFA World Cup, the second half of 2026 may face challenges in maintaining shipment momentum due to rising component prices [6][7] Cost Analysis - Panel costs account for approximately 40-50% of the total TV production cost, with prices beginning to rise as of January 2026 [6][7] - The price of 4GB DDR4 memory, commonly used in 4K TVs, has increased over fourfold in the past year, with expectations of a further increase of over 60% in the first quarter of 2026 [6][7] Market Dynamics - Smaller brands with limited resources are likely to be more adversely affected by the rising memory prices, impacting their production capabilities and profitability [7] - In the Chinese market, favorable subsidy policies for energy-efficient products are expected to benefit Mini LED models, with an anticipated penetration rate of 10% and shipments reaching 20 million units [7] - TCL is positioned to lead the Mini LED TV market, with a market share projected to exceed 30% due to its integrated advantages in materials and manufacturing [7]