预亏19-24亿，周期何时反转？中化国际：讨论已从“为何亏”转向“何时赚”

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a downturn, but there are signs of improvement, with expectations for a cyclical upturn starting in 2026 [1][26]. Financial Performance - Sinochem International (600500.SH) forecasts a net loss of 1.929 billion to 2.411 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year reduction in losses of 15% to 32% [4]. - The company’s non-recurring net profit is expected to be a loss of 1.837 billion to 2.296 billion yuan, with a year-on-year reduction in losses of 38% to 51% [4]. - The chemical sector has seen a significant decline in profitability, with the total profit of the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry dropping by 34.1% in 2023 [20]. Market Trends - The chemical ETF (159870.SZ) has shown a year-to-date increase of 42.56% in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF, which increased by 17.66% [5]. - The high energy costs and environmental pressures in Europe are leading to a continued exit of chemical production capacity, raising market expectations for the chemical sector [6]. Company Transformation - Sinochem International has transitioned from a chemical trading company to a new materials platform, focusing on the carbon three industry chain, polymer additives, and aramid fiber industry chains [8][9]. - The company is acquiring Nantong Xingchen Synthetic Materials Co., which will enhance its epoxy resin production capacity to 510,000 tons, making it the largest in China [9]. Business Segments - In 2024, the chemical new materials business generated 20.79 billion yuan, contributing 39.28% to total revenue, becoming the largest revenue source for the company [10]. - The company’s polymer additives business includes products that enhance the durability and stability of plastics and rubber, reflecting the results of previous acquisitions [16][27]. Industry Challenges - The chemical new materials sector is facing challenges due to declining prices of major products, with the gross margin for the chemical new materials business dropping to 1.89% in 2024 from 26.42% in 2021 [11][12]. - The cyclical nature of the chemical industry has led to significant fluctuations in profitability, with the industry experiencing a downturn since mid-2022 [18][20]. Future Outlook - The market is shifting focus from "why the losses" to "when the recovery" as the chemical sector approaches a potential cyclical turning point [26][27]. - The utilization rate of the basic raw materials and intermediates business has improved by approximately 11 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a reduction in fixed costs [27].