美联储暂停降息，鲍威尔发重要讲话

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the first pause in rate changes since July of the previous year [2][3][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The decision to pause interest rate changes was anticipated by the market, with futures indicating a probability of over 97% for no rate cut this week [7]. - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 175 basis points since September 2024, with the latest pause occurring after three consecutive meetings of rate cuts [7][8]. - The statement from the Federal Reserve showed a slight improvement in the economic outlook, removing previous language about increasing employment risks and indicating signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate [11][12]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - There were internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, with two members voting against the decision to maintain rates, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [8][9]. - The dissenting votes were from Waller and Miran, both of whom support further rate cuts, which may influence Waller's chances of being nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair [9][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve noted that economic activity is expanding steadily, with the unemployment rate showing signs of stabilization [12][16]. - Inflation remains slightly elevated, with the overall PCE price index rising by 2.9% year-over-year, and the core PCE index increasing by 4.3% [19]. - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with average monthly job growth around 22,000, reflecting a slowdown in labor supply growth [18][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Powell indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to dissipate by mid-2026, suggesting potential for policy easing if tariff effects peak [23][24]. - The Federal Reserve is currently at the high end of the neutral interest rate range, with data indicating that policy may not be overly restrictive [20][21].