【招银研究|海外宏观】双重风险缓和，如期暂停降息——美联储议息会议点评（2026年1月）

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the meeting on January 28, 2026, signaling a cautious approach amid stabilizing inflation and labor market conditions [1][3]. Economic: Dual Risk Improvement - The U.S. economy showed strong performance in Q4 2025, supported by resilient consumer spending. Indicators such as the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims suggest stabilization in the labor market [3]. - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by a total of 75 basis points since September 2025, leading to a peak in the unemployment rate, reducing the necessity for further rate cuts [3]. - Despite improvements, risks of "no job expansion" remain due to past over-hiring, slowed net immigration, and general economic uncertainty, although productivity gains support economic stability [3]. Policy: Data Dependency, Holding Steady - The decision to pause rate cuts received broad support, with only two dissenting votes from the minority faction. The current rate is viewed as at the upper end of the neutral range, indicating low necessity for further cuts [5]. - Powell avoided discussing political pressures during the press conference and emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence [5]. Outlook: Caution on Rate Cut Expectations - The Trump administration's push for monetary easing could reignite rate cut expectations, with a significant chance of the policy rate falling below 3% within the year [6]. - The administration is also advocating for lower credit card rates and increased purchases of mortgage-backed securities to reduce mortgage rates, potentially applying more pressure on the Federal Reserve [6]. Strategy: Market Expectations Slightly Dovish - The market reacted mildly to the Fed's decision to maintain rates, initially responding to a hawkish statement but later balancing out due to Powell's more neutral tone [7]. - The U.S. Treasury yields flattened, with the 2-year at 3.57%, 5-year at 3.83%, 10-year at 4.24%, and 30-year at 4.86%. The dollar index rose slightly by 0.13% to 96.344 [7]. - The market sentiment remains stable and cautious, with expectations for short-term Treasury GC repos to maintain a range-bound oscillation [7].