国泰海通 · 晨报260130｜宏观

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve decided to pause interest rate cuts, with a significant internal division reflected in the 10:2 vote, where two members advocated for a 25 basis point cut [2] - The Fed expressed a more optimistic view on the U.S. economy and employment, although the labor market is facing challenges with stagnant supply growth and a slight decline in demand [2] - Inflation is not seen as a major concern, with expectations that it will rise initially and then decline, largely influenced by tariffs peaking in 2026 [2] Group 2: Future Projections and Challenges - The Fed's forward guidance has become less clear, with no specific timeline provided for future rate cuts, indicating that decisions will depend on incoming data [2] - The upcoming change in Fed leadership may pose challenges to its independence, with potential candidates including Rick Reed, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller, and the possibility of multiple rate cuts in the near future [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to experience high volatility before ultimately trending down, with a mid-year low projected around 3.8% [4] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are expected to be driven by industrial demand, with a strong correlation to global industrial cycles, particularly in emerging sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [9] - The financial attributes of silver can amplify price volatility, influenced by speculative trading and the dynamics of silver ETFs [9] - A long-term bullish outlook for silver is supported by robust industrial demand, although caution is advised regarding potential short-term price corrections [10]