国泰海通｜宏观：白银牛市：价格破100怎么看

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in silver prices, attributing it to a combination of industrial and financial demand, and highlights the differences between silver and gold in terms of their market behavior and attributes [2][5][10]. Group 1: Silver Price Surge - Since 2025, silver prices have skyrocketed, reaching new highs, primarily driven by industrial and financial demand [6][8]. - The price of silver increased from $29.4 per ounce at the beginning of 2025 to $72.0 per ounce by the end of the year, marking a 144.8% increase, while gold rose by 62.8% during the same period [8]. - As of January 27, 2026, silver prices reached historical highs of $111.6 per ounce in the spot market and $106.5 per ounce in COMEX futures, with year-to-date increases of 50.3% and 51.1%, respectively [8]. Group 2: Historical Context of Silver Price Movements - Over the past 50 years, silver has experienced four notable price surges, with the most recent one beginning in 2024 due to geopolitical risks and instability in the international monetary system [3][16]. - The first surge occurred from 1979 to 1980, driven by speculative funds, while the second surge from 2010 to 2011 was fueled by quantitative easing following the financial crisis [16]. - The third surge in 2020 was a result of monetary easing in response to the pandemic, and the fourth surge since 2024 has been supported by strong industrial demand amid global energy transitions [17][19]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Industrial demand is the core driver of silver prices, accounting for 58.5% of total demand in 2024, with significant contributions from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [22][23]. - The demand for silver in photovoltaics is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating that global photovoltaic silver usage will reach 196 million ounces by 2025, 2.2 times that of 2021 [23]. - The ongoing energy transition and technological advancements in high-end electronics are expected to sustain structural growth in silver demand [19][22]. Group 4: Market Behavior and Volatility - Silver's financial attributes lead to greater price volatility compared to gold, as it attracts speculative investments due to its lower price and higher elasticity [12][26]. - The increase in speculative positions in silver futures can significantly impact prices, as seen when non-commercial long positions rise, leading to increased market optimism and price surges [26][28]. - The structure of silver ETFs, particularly the locking mechanism of inventories, can exacerbate market tightness and influence price dynamics [28][29]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The long-term outlook for silver prices remains positive, supported by ongoing industrial demand and potential shifts in monetary policy as countries reassess their reserve assets [33]. - The article warns of potential short-term overvaluation risks for silver, as recent price movements may indicate a correction phase following a period of rapid gains [34][36].