【光大研究每日速递】20260130

Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting indicated that the probability of interest rate cuts in Q1 2026 is low, as the job market stabilizes and liquidity issues in financial markets ease, but inflation has not yet shown a downward trend [5] - The Fed is expected to adopt a cautious approach to rate cuts, with a potential acceleration in cuts after the new chair takes office, especially if tariff-related inflation shows signs of peaking mid-year [5] Strategy Insights - In January 2026, major A-share indices experienced widespread gains, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, media, and comprehensive services leading the increase, while the Hong Kong stock market also showed a positive trend influenced by A-share performance and market sentiment [5] Company Insights - Qingdao Bank reported a revenue of 14.6 billion yuan for 2025, marking an 8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 5.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.7% growth, indicating strong asset expansion and a robust risk mitigation capacity [7] - New Oriental's FY26 Q2 results exceeded expectations with net revenue of $1.191 billion, a 14.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $45.45 million, up 42.3%, leading to an upward revision of the full-year revenue guidance [8]