贵金属巨震：申万期货早间评论-20260130

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming nomination of the next chairman of the Federal Reserve by President Trump, emphasizing his criticism of current Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates and stating that U.S. rates should be the lowest in the world [1] - The U.S. government has released a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on six key areas including transportation services and inbound consumption, aiming to enhance service consumption quality and support high-quality economic development [1] - International precious metals futures have generally risen, with COMEX gold futures up 1.32% to $5,410.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.98% to $115.78 per ounce [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have seen significant price increases, driven by geopolitical tensions and a loose liquidity environment, with gold prices reaching historical highs [2] - The market's concerns about U.S. debt sustainability and the independence of the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar's credibility, leading to increased demand for gold as a reserve asset [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause interest rate cuts has improved employment risk perceptions, but future rate cut signals remain unclear, with expectations of rate cuts resuming under the new Fed chairman [2] Group 3 - Oil prices have increased by 2.98% amid easing tensions in Venezuela and potential diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran [3] - Venezuela is advancing a comprehensive oil law reform that allows both foreign and local companies to independently develop oil fields and commercialize production [3] - As of January 16, U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.732 million barrels per day, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels compared to the same period last year [3] Group 4 - The aluminum market is experiencing downward pressure, with spot prices lacking upward drivers and a decrease in the aluminum water ratio below 75% [3] - Despite weak short-term fundamentals, long-term narratives of low inventory and limited supply provide support for aluminum prices [3] - The overall consumption atmosphere remains weak, with downstream enterprises showing low purchasing sentiment [3]