第一波存储涨价的手机受害者出现了

Core Viewpoint - The rising prices of storage chips are significantly impacting smartphone manufacturers, particularly in the mid to low-end market, leading to decreased profitability and increased costs [3][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Transsion Holdings announced a projected revenue of approximately 65.568 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of about 4.6%, with a net profit of approximately 2.546 billion yuan, a significant drop of 54.11% [3]. - This marks the first time Transsion has experienced a "halved" net profit since its listing, attributed to rising supply chain costs and increased expenses in sales and R&D [3][4]. - As of January 30, Transsion's stock price fell by 4.50% to 57.79 yuan, marking a 44% decline from its one-year high [3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The increase in storage prices is eroding profits in the smartphone market, especially for mid to low-end devices, with Transsion's net profit down 44.97% year-on-year in the first three quarters of the previous year [4]. - Other manufacturers, such as Xiaomi and realme, have also reported challenges in fully passing on the increased costs of storage components to consumers [4]. - Apple indicated that rising storage prices would impact its gross margins, and the company is currently evaluating response strategies [4]. Group 3: Cost Structure Changes - According to UBS, by Q4 2026, the cost of memory in the BOM (Bill of Materials) for mid-range smartphones is expected to rise to 34%, up from 22% in Q4 2024 and 27% in Q4 2025 [5]. - The cost of memory per smartphone is projected to increase by approximately $16, a 37% rise, which represents about 6% of the average selling price of mid-range smartphones [5]. - To fully offset the impact of rising memory prices, the average selling price of mid-range smartphones would need to increase by 17%, while flagship and high-end models would require a 7% increase [5]. Group 4: Future Projections - Counterpoint Research predicts that the increase in DRAM prices will continue to raise BOM costs for smartphones, with low, mid, and high-end models expected to see increases of approximately 25%, 15%, and 10% respectively, with potential further increases of 10% to 15% by Q2 2026 [6]. - The anticipated rise in component costs is expected to negatively affect terminal demand, with a projected 2.1% decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026 [6].