特朗普：今晚官宣！他将是美联储新主席？市场押注其胜率飙至95%

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman is highly anticipated, with a probability exceeding 80% according to reports, and it is expected that his leadership may usher in a "rate cut and balance sheet reduction" era [2][3]. Group 1: Nomination Process - President Trump plans to announce the next Federal Reserve Chairman on the morning of the 30th, with Warsh's nomination probability soaring to 95% [3]. - Trump has met with Warsh and is reportedly impressed, indicating that the final decision on the nomination is still pending [2][8]. - The selection process is being led by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, who has submitted four final candidates to Trump, including Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, and NEC Director Kevin Hassett [8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Warsh's hawkish reputation has led to a rapid increase in the value of the US dollar and bond yields, while commodity prices, particularly precious metals, have seen significant declines [5]. - Recent trading data shows a notable drop in gold and silver prices, with gold down by 3.36% and silver down by 4.52% [6]. Group 3: Warsh's Background and Policy Implications - Warsh has extensive experience across academia, regulatory bodies, and the investment sector, providing him with a deep understanding of financial markets and monetary policy [11]. - His tenure as a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011 coincided with the global financial crisis, where he played a crucial role in communication between the Fed and the markets [12]. - Deutsche Bank predicts that if Warsh is appointed, his policy approach may involve a unique combination of "rate cuts and balance sheet reduction," contingent on regulatory reforms that lower banks' reserve requirements [11]. Group 4: Trump and the Fed's Relationship - The upcoming nomination is set to end the long-standing tension between Trump and current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whom Trump has criticized for not lowering rates quickly enough [9][14]. - Trump's ongoing focus on monetary policy is evident, as he stated that "interest rates are still falling," highlighting the importance of the new Chairman's influence on future rate policies [15]. Group 5: Potential Market Impact - If Warsh takes over the Fed, significant adjustments to the Fed's policy framework could be expected, potentially impacting global financial markets and economic outlooks profoundly [16].