今晚官宣！特朗普拟提名沃什执掌美联储，市场押注其胜率飙至95%

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve by President Trump, highlighting the implications of his monetary policy approach, which may include a unique combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [1][10][12]. Group 1: Nomination and Market Reactions - Kevin Warsh's probability of being nominated as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 95% according to Polymarket [5]. - Trump is reportedly preparing to nominate Warsh, who is well-respected in the financial community, as a candidate to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May [3][9]. - Following the news of Warsh's potential nomination, the stock market reacted negatively, with U.S. stocks declining, bond yields rising, and the dollar strengthening [7]. Group 2: Warsh's Background and Policy Implications - Warsh has extensive experience in both public and private sectors, having served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 during the global financial crisis [10]. - Deutsche Bank predicts that if Warsh is appointed, his policy may feature a combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, contingent on regulatory reforms that lower banks' reserve requirements [10][12]. - Warsh has emphasized that inflation is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and has criticized the notion of attributing it to external factors [13][20]. Group 3: Critique of Current Federal Reserve Policies - Warsh has been critical of the Federal Reserve's recent policies, arguing that the central bank has strayed from its core mission of maintaining price stability and has engaged in excessive quantitative easing [17][20]. - He advocates for a restoration of the Federal Reserve's original mandate, suggesting that the institution needs to reform rather than undergo a complete overhaul [16][20]. - Warsh's approach includes a call for a clear delineation of responsibilities between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, aiming to prevent fiscal irresponsibility [21][22]. Group 4: Economic Outlook and Future Prospects - Despite his critiques, Warsh remains optimistic about the U.S. economy, believing that advancements in AI and deregulation could lead to a productivity boom similar to the 1980s [23]. - He argues that controlling inflation through balance sheet reduction could create space for lower interest rates, which is crucial for supporting the real economy [14][18]. - Warsh's vision for the Federal Reserve includes a focus on practical monetary policy that aligns with the administration's goals of reducing borrowing costs [14][19].