国泰海通｜地产：核心销售趋于均衡，投资开发仍需助力——房地产行业2026年展望

Core Viewpoint - The industry is experiencing a supply reduction and quality improvement, with new and old driving forces working together to push the market towards a bottoming out and recovery [1] Group 1: 2025 Review - The total market value of the AH real estate sector is misaligned with its position in the economy [2] - In 2025, actual sales area data was slightly below the predicted lower limit, primarily due to overly optimistic expectations for sales in third and fourth-tier cities [2] - Investment data showed that completed projects were within the forecast range, but new starts, construction projects, and real estate development investments deviated from expectations [2] - The decline in sales area led to a weakened investment willingness among companies, resulting in a downward trend in investment data [2] - By the end of 2025, the new starts area growth rate was -20.4% and the completion area growth rate was -18.1% [2] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The central economic work conference has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market in 2026, with policies aimed at controlling increments, reducing inventory, and improving supply [3] - The pace of investment recovery is expected to lag behind sales, with developers adjusting investments based on sales performance [3] - Without strong external policy or market support, investment stabilization is anticipated around 2027 [3] - Under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, the construction area growth rate for 2026 is projected to be between -5.8% and -10.2%, with corresponding investment growth rates of -4.0% and -12.5% [3] - The sales base is expected to continue declining in 2026, with some risks being released [3] - The industry supply-demand structure is gradually stabilizing, with new starts growth rates projected between -8% and -16% and land acquisition cost growth rates between -3.1% and -15.7% [3] - Annual sales amount predictions for 2026 are optimistic at 2.6%, neutral at -4.9%, and pessimistic at -11.4% [3] Group 3: Policy Focus - The main pressure on the industry in 2026 will stem from ongoing investment growth rate challenges, which could drag down the economy [4] - The ability of policies to effectively promote interest rate cuts and reserve requirements will be crucial in compensating for insufficient investment growth [4] - Continuous monitoring of the implementation progress of interest rate cuts, reserve requirements, and urban renewal is necessary [4]