国泰海通｜食饮：白酒筑底，政策、批价双重催化

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry has entered a deep adjustment period, but recent positive changes in the real estate and domestic demand sectors, along with Moutai's market-oriented transformation, are stimulating incremental demand and driving valuation recovery [1]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Positive changes in the real estate sector and domestic demand are noted, recommending companies with price elasticity and those expected to clear inventory gradually [2]. - The real estate industry is showing signs of recovery, with policies becoming more favorable. The government prioritizes boosting domestic demand, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2]. - The real estate market is stabilizing after years of adjustment, with recent reports indicating that many real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, signaling a shift in the market [2]. Group 2: Moutai's Market-Oriented Reform - Moutai's market-oriented reform, initiated in December 2025, aims to adjust product structure, pricing systems, and distribution networks, which has led to increased demand and stable pricing [3]. - The online platform "i Moutai" has seen a surge in purchases, and the demand for core products is expected to support pricing as the Spring Festival approaches [3]. - Recent price increases for Moutai products indicate a successful strategy of exchanging price for volume, with significant price increases noted, such as a rise of over 1600 yuan for certain products [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Stock Performance - The white liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its cycle, with significant inventory clearance observed since Q3 2025 [4]. - The stock prices of white liquor companies have been under pressure due to weak market demand and liquidity issues, but stabilization in pricing could alleviate this pressure [4]. - If more positive signals are released from the policy level, it could further catalyze stock prices in the white liquor sector [4].