【招商电子】ASML 25Q4跟踪报告：25Q4营收与订单量创历史新高，指引2026年EUV业务大幅增长

Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, ASML reported revenue of €9.718 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.3%, aligning with guidance expectations of €9.2-9.8 billion [2][3] - Equipment revenue was €7.584 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year and 36.6% quarter-on-quarter, while service revenue was €2.134 billion, down 0.6% year-on-year but up 8.8% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 52.2%, which is within the guidance range of 50%-52% [3][14] Orders and Market Demand - Q4 2025 saw a record order intake of €13.158 billion, a year-on-year increase of 85.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 143.7%, with significant contributions from EUV orders [2][3] - The demand for EUV technology is driven by strong growth in AI-related capacity construction in data centers and infrastructure, which is gradually extending to high-end logic and storage chip customers [16] - The order breakdown included €7.4 billion in EUV orders, up 146.7% year-on-year and 105.6% quarter-on-quarter, indicating robust demand in the logic and storage sectors [3][16] Regional Performance - Revenue from mainland China in Q4 2025 was €2.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.1% but a decrease in revenue share to 36% [4] - Revenue from Taiwan was €986 million, up 38.5% year-on-year, while revenue from the US was €1.289 billion, down 35.3% year-on-year [4] Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, ASML expects revenue to be between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion, with a gross margin forecast of 51%-53% [5][13] - The company anticipates significant growth in EUV business for 2026, with total annual revenue projected between €34 billion and €39 billion [5][6] - Long-term guidance remains unchanged, with expectations for revenue to reach between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030, and gross margins to improve to 56%-60% [6] Technological Advancements - ASML achieved significant progress in 2025, with the NXE:3800E model becoming a core production device for customers, achieving a wafer throughput of 220 wafers per hour [17] - The company is also enhancing existing EUV equipment to improve capacity, with expectations for increased market utilization of low numerical aperture EUV technology [17] Industry Trends - The market outlook has improved significantly, with strong demand for AI-related capacity in data centers and infrastructure, which is expected to drive growth in high-end logic and storage chips [16] - Customers are transitioning from 4nm to 3nm technology and expanding 2nm capacity to meet future demands in mobile devices and high-performance computing [16]