【招银研究|House View】国内经济圆满收官，黄金长牛逻辑未变——招商银行研究院House View（2026年2月）

Asset Allocation Recommendations - The article provides a detailed asset allocation table indicating the monthly trends and recommendations for various asset classes over the next six months. The recommendations include high allocation for cash and certain equity sectors, while suggesting lower allocations for others like commodities and certain bonds [9][10]. Investment Strategy Suggestions - The investment strategy table outlines specific recommendations for different asset categories, emphasizing a balanced approach. It suggests maintaining cash positions while considering stable low-risk financial products and short-term bond funds. For equities, it highlights a focus on A-shares and sectors benefiting from AI and manufacturing [10]. U.S. Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is described as being in a state of "overheating expansion," with projected GDP growth rates significantly above market expectations. The article notes a potential GDP annualized growth of 5.4% by Q4 2025, driven by strong consumer spending, investment, and exports [12][13][14][15]. Employment and Labor Market - The unemployment rate in the U.S. is reported to have peaked, with a slight decline to 4.4% in December 2025. However, job growth remains weak, with non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs in December, indicating a mismatch in the labor market [18][22]. Inflation Trends - U.S. inflation is described as being stable, with the CPI recorded at 2.7% in December 2025. Factors contributing to this stability include weak durable goods consumption and a focus on managing oil prices. The article warns of potential inflation risks stemming from increased capital expenditures related to AI [27][28]. Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause interest rate cuts is highlighted, with indications that future decisions will depend on economic data. The article discusses the political pressures faced by the Fed and the potential implications of upcoming leadership changes [28][29][34]. International Economic Focus: Japan - The article shifts focus to Japan, where political instability and proposed tax cuts are raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. The potential impact of these policies on Japan's credit rating and financial markets is discussed [39][44]. Commodity Market Insights - The article discusses the outlook for commodities, particularly gold, which is expected to remain in a bull market due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing monetary policy support. However, it also cautions about potential short-term volatility [69][70]. Chinese Economic Performance - China's economy is reported to have successfully completed its 14th Five-Year Plan, with GDP surpassing 140 trillion yuan and a nominal growth rate of 4%. The article notes a strong contribution from net exports, while domestic demand remains weak [75][79].