4100点的十字路口，如何做好投资布局？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics in China, highlighting a significant divergence between traditional economy stocks and emerging sectors like non-ferrous metals and commercial aerospace, indicating a transition from a "structural bull market" to a "broad bull market" as the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses 4000 points [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The divergence in market performance reflects a "new-old momentum transition," with non-ferrous metals and commercial aerospace experiencing substantial growth driven by macroeconomic and industrial logic [3][4]. - Non-ferrous metals are benefiting from a multi-dimensional resonance, including global energy transition, AI development, geopolitical uncertainties, and supply constraints, leading to a strong demand cycle [3][4]. - The rise of commercial aerospace signifies the industrialization of "new productive forces," with increasing satellite internet deployment and significant demand for rocket manufacturing and satellite development [4]. Group 2: Traditional Economy - The weakness in traditional economy stocks indicates a market waiting for performance turning points and policy catalysts, particularly in key areas like real estate that impact the consumption chain [4][5]. - Despite current underperformance, traditional stocks are expected to recover as the market transitions to a broader bull phase, with historical trends suggesting that healthy bull markets typically involve rotation across multiple sectors [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The core strategy for navigating the current market involves "focusing on prosperity, balanced allocation, and dynamic adjustment," emphasizing the importance of aligning with industry trends and maintaining core positions in strong sectors [5][6]. - Investors are advised to consider ETFs covering diverse non-ferrous metals and the entire commercial aerospace supply chain to mitigate risks and capitalize on sector growth [5][6]. - Attention should also be given to potential recovery signals in "mid-tier" and "traditional" stocks, particularly in consumer and financial sectors, as the market evolves [5][6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to exhibit an "N-shaped" trajectory in 2026, with potential highs in the first quarter followed by consolidation in the second and third quarters, before reaching new highs in the latter half of the year [6][7]. - Future excess returns are expected to stem from the industrialization of "new productive forces" and the cyclical recovery and value reassessment of the traditional economy, necessitating a balanced investment approach [7].