张瑜：经济结构“黄金交叉”，中游制造“更胜一筹”！——张瑜旬度会议纪要No.130

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on "Four Golden Crosses and Their Implications for Investment," highlighting significant economic signals that indicate potential shifts in the economic landscape [2]. Group 1: Golden Cross of New and Old Economy GDP Proportions - A model categorizes the economy into new (equipment manufacturing, information, leasing, and business services) and old (real estate, construction, and building materials) sectors. In 2015, the new economy accounted for 14.5% of GDP, while the old economy was at 24.2%, a 10 percentage point difference. By 2025, the new economy is projected to rise to 20%, surpassing the old economy at 19.7%, marking a significant shift in economic structure [3]. - This change suggests that even if the old economy does not stabilize, the overall economy may still recover due to the growth and increased size of the new economy, aligning with expectations of nominal GDP bottoming out and rebounding by 2026 [3]. Group 2: Golden Cross of Household Wealth Structure - A simplified model of household wealth focuses on urban housing and financial assets. By 2026, financial assets (deposits and non-deposit financial assets) are expected to exceed the total market value of urban residential properties for the first time. Since 2022, the total market value of urban housing has been declining, while financial assets have been growing, indicating a potential shift in household wealth dynamics [6]. - If this golden cross occurs, it could lead to a new phase in household wealth, positively impacting social risk appetite and consumer spending tendencies [6]. Group 3: Recovery of Spending Willingness Across Three Sectors - The article examines the spending willingness of residents, government, and overseas sectors. The combined spending willingness of these three sectors has been declining since 2021. However, a turning point is anticipated in 2024-2025, with a stabilization in 2024 and a potential recovery in 2025, driven by better-than-expected exports and increased fiscal counter-cyclical measures [7]. - If this positive trend continues into 2026, it is expected to gradually reflect in economic data [7]. Group 4: Optimal Midstream Economic Conditions - An analysis of supply-demand structures in the manufacturing sector reveals that the midstream segment currently exhibits the best balance, surpassing the high point of 2021. The downstream sector has just turned positive in terms of supply-demand growth differentials, while upstream conditions may lag behind due to their strong ties to the old economy [10]. - The midstream sector's favorable conditions are clear and independent, suggesting a potential improvement in upstream supply-demand dynamics in the future [10].