LangChain 创始人警告：2026 成为“Agent 工程”分水岭，传统软件公司的生存考验开始了

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "long-horizon agents" is reshaping the software engineering paradigm, moving from deterministic code-based systems to models that operate as black boxes, requiring real-time execution to understand their behavior [2][3][6]. Group 1: Long-Horizon Agents - Long-horizon agents are seen as a turning point in AI, with predictions that their adoption will accelerate by the end of 2025 to 2026 [2]. - These agents function more like "digital employees," capable of executing tasks over extended periods, learning from trial and error, and self-correcting [2][3]. - The transition to long-horizon agents may challenge traditional software companies, similar to the shift from on-premises to cloud solutions, where not all companies successfully adapted [2][3]. Group 2: Differences in Software Development - Traditional software development relies on deterministic logic written in code, while agent-based systems introduce non-deterministic behavior, making it necessary to observe their real-time execution to understand their operations [30][32]. - The concept of "tracing" has become crucial in agent systems, allowing developers to track internal processes and understand the context at each step, which differs significantly from traditional software debugging methods [31][32]. - The iterative process of developing agents is more complex, as developers cannot predict behavior before deployment, necessitating more rounds of refinement and adjustments [34][36]. Group 3: The Role of Data and Instructions - Existing software companies possess valuable data and APIs that can be leveraged in the agent era, but the ability to effectively utilize these assets will depend on new engineering approaches [37][38]. - The instructions on how to use data effectively are becoming increasingly important, as traditional methods of human execution are being automated through agents [38]. - The integration of domain-specific knowledge into agent systems is essential for their effectiveness, as seen in examples from the financial sector [38]. Group 4: Future of Agent Development - Memory capabilities in agents are anticipated to become a significant competitive advantage, allowing them to learn and improve over time [51][52]. - The development of user interfaces for long-horizon agents will likely require both synchronous and asynchronous management to handle tasks effectively [53][54]. - Code sandboxes are expected to become a critical component of agent capabilities, enabling safe execution and verification of scripts [56].