国泰海通 · 宏观聚焦｜缩表式降息：如何理解沃什的政策主张

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the policy stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Walsh, emphasizing "pragmatic monetarism" which aims to control inflation while addressing President Trump's interest in interest rate cuts, ultimately seeking to correct market distortions caused by excessive quantitative easing (QE) and achieve convergence in the "K"-shaped economy [2]. Group 1: "Balance Sheet Reduction + Rate Cuts": New Fed Chairman's Policy Proposals - Walsh's notable policy proposal is "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction" (QT), asserting that the Fed must take responsibility for inflation, which he attributes to prolonged QE post-crisis. He believes QT is necessary to control inflation, and once inflation risks are mitigated, it will create room for rate cuts [3][7]. - The policy proposals reflect a reform in monetary policy mechanisms. Walsh criticizes the Fed's large balance sheet, claiming QE distorts market incentives. He advocates for reducing bank reserves through balance sheet reduction to enhance lending willingness, transitioning from a "sufficient reserves" to a "scarce reserves" framework [4][8]. Group 2: The White House and Wall Street Balance: Why Trump Chose Walsh - Trump's criticism of current Chairman Powell as "Mr. Too Late" led to speculation about other candidates, but Walsh, favored by Wall Street, offers a balance between maintaining Fed independence and aligning with Trump's rate cut demands. His "pragmatic monetarism" reflects a commitment to controlling inflation while accommodating Trump's interests [4][12]. - The QT approach is seen as "responsible balance sheet management," correcting the idea of "infinite support" for demand-side policies, while rate cuts aim to enhance supply capabilities from an industrial policy perspective. This aligns with Trump's supply-side reform agenda [4][12]. Group 3: Pragmatic Monetarism: Speculations on Walsh's Governance Approach - Based on the quantity theory of money, QT is indeed a tool for controlling inflation. Evidence includes the CPI dropping from 9% to around 3% after the Fed announced passive balance sheet reduction in 2022. However, QT has limits, as recent liquidity issues in the repo market have led to a halt in QT and the initiation of Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) [5][16]. - Operationally, a series of deregulatory measures for banks, such as relaxing capital constraints and optimizing the Fed's temporary discount tools, could provide more room for QT. However, transitioning to a "scarce reserves" framework is challenging, and liquidity issues will constrain QT until bank reserves return to adequate levels. Trump's policies for manufacturing and real estate require credit expansion, which depends on sufficient reserve levels [5][16].