数据点评 | 财政金融协同，蓄力“开门红”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure, suggesting that future policy focus may shift towards "fiscal-financial coordination" [2][42]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In December, the broad fiscal revenue experienced a significant decline of 18.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest level of the year, while broad fiscal expenditure decreased by only 0.7%, indicating a relative resilience in spending [2][42]. - The general public budget revenue for 2025 was reported at 21,604.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the previous year, while expenditure was 28,739.5 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1% [7][41]. Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - The sharp decline in revenue was primarily driven by a 25% drop in general fiscal revenue, influenced by a high base effect from the previous year, with non-tax revenue plummeting by 47.9% [10][20][42]. - Government fund revenue saw a reduced decline of 11.7%, with land transfer revenue decreasing by 22.9%, indicating a slight improvement in the land market [10][18][42]. Group 3: Expenditure Insights - Despite revenue pressures, broad fiscal expenditure's decline continued to narrow, with urban and rural community spending increasing by 12.8%, marking a shift from negative to positive growth [12][43]. - The government fund expenditure maintained a positive growth rate of 1.5%, suggesting that the 500 billion yuan special bond limit is being accelerated [12][43]. Group 4: Future Policy Directions - Looking ahead, the first quarter's economic performance may rely on fiscal-financial coordination, with a focus on expanding interest subsidies and new infrastructure investments [14][43]. - The upcoming fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to emphasize increased total spending, improved structural efficiency, and enhanced economic momentum through various measures, including interest subsidies for small and medium enterprises [15][43].