热点思考 | 旧制度的复兴——“沃什时代”的美联储（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump is expected to reshape the Fed's policies, leading to a potential "Warsh Era" characterized by a mix of cautious rate cuts and a strong emphasis on maintaining the Fed's independence [1][3][40]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Candidate Dynamics - The nomination process for the Fed Chair has been lengthy, reflecting Trump's careful consideration of loyalty, rate cut stance, policy reputation, reform agenda, and Wall Street influence [1][5]. - Market reactions to different candidates have varied significantly, with Warsh's nomination leading to a "tightening trade," resulting in rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [2][16]. - The market's perception of candidate independence has influenced trading patterns, with Warsh's rising probability correlating with a shift towards tightening [2][16]. Group 2: Warsh's Policy Stance - Warsh is characterized as a "moderate dove" on rate cuts but hawkish on inflation and balance sheet reduction, emphasizing the need for Fed independence [3][40]. - His approach suggests a combination of rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, advocating for a return to a "scarce reserves" framework from the current "ample reserves" framework [3][44]. - Warsh's stance on inflation indicates a belief that it is primarily driven by Fed policy missteps rather than external factors, advocating for a cautious approach to rate cuts [40][41]. Group 3: Dollar and Market Implications - The dollar's strength is seen as a critical factor, with Warsh aiming to reshape the relationship between the dollar and gold prices [4][49]. - The upcoming Senate confirmation process for Warsh is expected to be smoother due to his dual experience in Wall Street and the Fed, although the content of the hearings will be crucial for future policy direction [4][49][51]. - The potential for a "weak dollar" narrative to be challenged under Warsh's leadership raises questions about the Fed's ability to restore dollar credibility [4][54].