克而瑞地产研究·2026-02-01 06:46Group 1 - The land transaction scale is at a seasonal low, with a significant decrease in both supply and demand. As of January 25, the total area of land sold was 25.8 million square meters, down 90% month-on-month and 48% year-on-year. The transaction amount was 62.2 billion yuan, also down 90% month-on-month and 59% year-on-year [18][17]. - The threshold for the top 100 land reserve value has decreased, with the new land reserve threshold at 350 million yuan, down 35% year-on-year. The total price threshold for the top 100 is 160 million yuan, down 20% year-on-year, and the new construction area threshold is 74,000 square meters, down 17% year-on-year [20][19]. - The investment amount for the top 100 land-acquiring companies has seen a nearly 50% year-on-year decline, with the total new land reserve value, total price, and area for January amounting to 128 billion yuan, 57.9 billion yuan, and 1.422 million square meters respectively. The decline is primarily due to many cities not starting new supply for the year [22][21]. Group 2 - The "window period" for land supply is expected to open, leading to a potential rebound in land auction enthusiasm. Recent policy trends indicate that the central government will continue to implement moderately loose monetary policies, which may boost companies' willingness to acquire land. Additionally, the new year will see the implementation of land supply plans, which is expected to gradually increase market activity in the first half of 2026 [24][26].