【广发宏观团队】全球叙事切换：杯弓蛇影还是未雨绸缪？

Global Macro Narratives - The article outlines five core macro narratives for 2025: weakening dollar credit, gold as a new pricing anchor for the monetary system, reshaping of global supply chains, artificial intelligence as the infrastructure for a new industrial chain, and non-ferrous metals as the "oil" of the AI era. These narratives are expected to lead to strong performance in precious metals, non-ferrous metals, emerging markets, and AI-related industries [1]. Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The announcement by Trump to nominate Waller as the next Fed Chair led to significant adjustments in precious metals. The underlying logic is that large fiscal deficits to promote re-industrialization and AI leadership will weaken dollar credit and necessitate accommodative monetary policy from the Fed, which could impact the pricing of precious metals and emerging markets [2][3]. - Waller's policy inclination suggests a separation of monetary and fiscal policies, advocating for monetary discipline, which could reshape dollar credit and affect the pricing foundation of precious metals [2]. Market Volatility and Asset Performance - Global asset markets are experiencing high volatility, with significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices. The article notes that the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) rose to 17.44%, indicating increased market caution [5][7]. - The article highlights a mixed performance in global stock markets, with the MSCI developed markets index showing little change and emerging markets up by 1.38%. The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.34% over the week, while the Nasdaq experienced a decline of 0.17% [5]. Commodity Price Movements - Gold and silver prices experienced significant fluctuations, with gold dropping to $4981.85 per ounce after a sharp increase earlier in the week. Despite this, both metals recorded over 10% gains since the beginning of the year [7]. - Non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, showed volatility influenced by macroeconomic sentiments, with LME copper futures averaging $13,196 per ton, reflecting a 0.4% decline [8]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is described as balanced amid mixed signals, with U.S. Treasury yields stabilizing. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.26% [9]. - The article notes that the market is pricing in a 13.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March, reflecting uncertainty in future monetary policy [9]. Chinese Market Trends - The Chinese stock market showed a decline, with the CSI 300 index down by 1.59% over the week. However, the Hang Seng index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises index recorded gains of 2.4% and 1.7%, respectively [12]. - The article mentions that the A-share market is experiencing increased volatility, with a significant drop in the breadth of the market and a rise in the concentration of trading activity [13][14]. Economic Indicators and Predictions - The article predicts that January's actual and nominal GDP growth will be 4.94% and 4.48%, respectively, with industrial production expected to show a slight increase [21]. - It also highlights that the PPI for January is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.22% but a year-on-year decline of 1.48%, indicating mixed signals in the industrial price landscape [23].