【策略周报】波动明显上升，适度回归稳健

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent economic indicators and policy decisions that may impact investment strategies, particularly in the context of industrial profits and monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve [2]. Group 1: Important Events Review - On January 27, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that in 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 73,982 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous year. In December, profits of these enterprises grew by 5.3% year-on-year [2]. - On January 28, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. The statement removed references to increasing employment risks, indicating improvements in economic conditions, particularly with signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, suggesting a more cautious approach from Fed decision-makers [2]. - On January 29, U.S. President Trump stated that he had engaged in discussions with Iran amid escalating tensions and planned to continue dialogue while threatening military action to urge Iran to accept the terms of an agreement [2]. - On January 30, President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, advocating for quicker interest rate cuts while also supporting a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, positioning him as relatively hawkish compared to other candidates [2]. Group 2: Market Overview - The bond market continued its recovery, while the equity market showed weak fluctuations. The sentiment in the bond market improved, with long-term bond yields declining again at the beginning of the week. Many local governments set GDP targets that were either in line with or slightly lower than the national growth rate of 5% from the previous year, indicating a shift away from aggressive growth targets [4].