热点思考 | 地方“两会”观察：二十省市，三大特征（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The average GDP growth target for 2026 across twenty provinces is set at 5.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the 2025 target, but an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the actual growth rate in 2025, indicating a more pragmatic and positive outlook [2][11][44] - Eight regions, including Beijing and Shandong, have set their GDP growth targets at around 5% or higher, while Hainan and Xinjiang lead with targets of approximately 6% and 5.5%-6%, respectively [2][11][44] - Economic powerhouses like Guangdong, Henan, and Zhejiang have adopted a more optimistic tone in their reports, emphasizing efforts to achieve better results in their economic performance [3][11][44] Group 2 - Investment growth targets show significant regional differentiation, with western regions like Xinjiang setting a high target of around 8%, while coastal provinces generally aim for around 5% [4][15][44] - Most regions have set their retail sales growth targets above the actual performance in 2025, with notable increases in targets for Henan and Xinjiang, while Hebei and Guangdong maintain targets around 5% [20][44] - Employment remains a priority, with provinces like Guangdong, Shandong, and Henan setting ambitious targets for new urban jobs, while environmental indicators are becoming more stringent, with specific PM2.5 concentration targets set by Beijing and Shandong [5][27][44] Group 3 - Expanding domestic demand is still the primary task, shifting focus from physical consumption to a balance of goods and services, with policies like "trade-in" becoming normalized [6][29][44] - Service consumption is being elevated, with various regions focusing on "first-release economy" and "silver economy" to create new demand [6][29][44] - The concept of "new quality productivity" is gaining traction, with regions leveraging their unique advantages for differentiated development, such as Beijing focusing on AI and quantum technology, while Zhejiang aims to create a national-level integrated circuit cluster [6][29][44]