【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】开启区间震荡行情

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a transition from a strong momentum phase to a high-level consolidation phase, with the "steady and far-reaching" policy supporting this shift. The market's internal strength is gradually declining, indicating a need for time to digest valuations and performance [2][6]. Short-term Market Positioning - The short-term market has reached historical high levels, with the A-share floating profit also retreating from these highs. The average holding period remains at historically low levels, indicating excessive trading behavior. The technology sectors that initially led the market have seen a reduction in attractiveness, while cyclical sectors are also experiencing a decline in internal stability [3][5]. Long-term Market Positioning - The opening red market is an extension of the structural market of 2025, with expectations of a mid-term fundamental upcycle. However, as valuations reach historical highs, the market faces increased resistance, necessitating a transition from upward to consolidation phases. This requires time for performance to catch up with valuations [5][21]. Market Characteristics at High Valuation Levels - Four key characteristics of the market at high valuation levels include: 1. Increased difficulty in raising valuations. 2. Stricter conditions for upward breakthroughs, requiring new performance drivers. 3. High sensitivity to liquidity shocks, which could trigger adjustments from upper to lower consolidation ranges. 4. The need for "perfect performance validation" to avoid downward adjustments [21][22]. Sector Performance Insights - Various sectors, including communication, electronics, defense, and basic chemicals, have reached historical high valuation levels. The overall PE valuation of A-shares is also at historical highs, indicating a need for performance to catch up with these valuations [5][23]. Policy Impact - The "steady and far-reaching" policy is expected to accelerate the market's transition to the next phase, characterized by style switching and profit expansion, followed by a period of consolidation. This policy is likely to influence the performance of heavyweight stocks that have been under pressure [24][22].