【申万宏源策略】周度研究成果（20260126 - 20260201)

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is currently in a phase of oscillation, with a strong momentum in technology and cyclical sectors, but the short-term market strength is gradually declining [4][5] - Structural characteristics of the market at high valuation levels include increased difficulty in raising sector valuations, stricter conditions for upward breakthroughs, and heightened sensitivity to liquidity shocks [4] - A correction phase is expected before a new upward stage begins in the second half of 2026, driven by improvements in the fundamental cycle and shifts in asset allocation [5] Group 2: Valuation Comparisons - As of January 30, 2026, the valuation metrics for major indices are as follows: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 22.5x, PB at 1.9x, at historical 83% and 50% percentiles - SSE 50 PE at 11.7x, PB at 1.3x, at historical 61% and 41% percentiles - CSI 300 PE at 14.2x, PB at 1.5x, at historical 65% and 39% percentiles - CSI 500 PE at 37.9x, PB at 2.6x, at historical 70% and 61% percentiles - ChiNext Index PE at 42.6x, PB at 5.7x, at historical 41% and 67% percentiles [7][8] Group 3: Sector Performance - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile historically include real estate, automation equipment, retail, and electronics (semiconductors) [8] - The white goods sector is currently in the bottom 15th percentile for both PE and PB valuations, indicating potential undervaluation [8] Group 4: Global Asset Allocation - The recent hawkish nomination of Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve has led to tightening liquidity expectations, causing significant fluctuations in precious metals [10] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.26%, and the dollar index is currently at 97.1, reflecting a tightening monetary environment [10] Group 5: Future Industry Trends - Quantum technology is expected to see significant milestones, with predictions of achieving "quantum supremacy" by the end of 2026 [11][12] - The hydrogen energy sector is witnessing rapid development, with major projects being launched and industry chains forming [12]