贵金属遭受重挫：申万期货早间评论-20260202

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China's manufacturing market demand has tightened, but production remains in an expansionary phase, with ongoing optimization of the industrial structure. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2026 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI stands at 50.1%, while the high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 52%, indicating stable development in these sectors [1] - International gold and silver prices experienced significant declines on January 30, with COMEX gold futures dropping 8.35% to $4,907.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling 25.50% to $85.25 per ounce, marking some of the largest single-day declines in decades [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, a sharp decline was observed, with spot silver dropping over 30% and spot gold over 10%. This volatility is attributed to two main factors: the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, which strengthened the dollar index, and a market correction following a period of rapid price increases [2][19] - Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term upward trend for precious metals remains intact due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. debt sustainability, which may lead to a high probability of interest rate cuts within the year [2][20] - In the oil market, the SC night market saw a decline of 2.67%. The easing of tensions in Venezuela and potential diplomatic engagement with Iran are noted as factors influencing the market [3][14] Group 3 - The copper market is experiencing a short-term adjustment phase, with prices down 0.47%. Supply remains tight, and while smelting profits are at breakeven, overall production continues to grow [21] - The zinc market also saw a slight decline of 0.23%, with tight supply conditions persisting and downstream demand showing mixed signals [22] - Aluminum prices fell by 2.82%, reflecting weak demand and increasing inventory levels, although long-term support is expected from low inventory and constrained supply [23]