【石油化工】地缘政治不确定性驱动油价上行，坚定看好石化板块景气度——行业周报第438期（20260126—260201）（赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫）

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions have increased oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures reported at $69.83 and $65.74 per barrel respectively, reflecting increases of 6.7% and 7.3% from the previous week [4] - The oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 and $80 per barrel until 2026, supported by high marginal costs of U.S. shale oil and OPEC+'s decision to pause production increases [4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a global oil demand growth of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, which is higher than the 850,000 barrels per day expected in 2025 [4] Group 2 - The strategic value of deep-sea resources is becoming more prominent, with major oil companies expected to maintain high capital expenditures and expand their natural gas markets [5] - The domestic upstream capital expenditure will support the growth of oil service companies, which are expected to benefit from improved operational quality and increased international competitiveness [5] - The oil service sector is anticipated to see a performance boost as overseas operations begin to contribute positively to earnings [5] Group 3 - The petrochemical industry is transitioning from a simple "reduce oil, increase chemicals" approach to focusing on high-value transformation, indicating a new policy phase [6] - The refining sector is nearing the end of capacity expansion, and supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve due to regulatory constraints [6] - The chemical fiber sector is experiencing structural optimization with limited new polyester filament capacity, favoring leading enterprises [6][7]