【基础化工】26年1月化工涨幅居前，坚守上游油服、化工龙头、国产替代三主线——行业周报（0126-0130）（赵乃迪/周家诺/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫）

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery trend, supported by macroeconomic data and government policies aimed at optimizing supply-side dynamics, which enhances the competitive advantage of leading enterprises [4][5][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance and Macroeconomic Data - In January 2026, the oil and petrochemical index and the basic chemical index increased by 14.9% and 10.1% respectively, ranking third and sixth among all primary industries, indicating market expectations for recovery in the chemical sector [4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown positive signals, with a continuous narrowing of year-on-year declines since July 2025 and a month-on-month improvement since October 2025, suggesting a release of pressure on industrial product prices [4]. - The China Chemical Price Index (CCPI) has risen by 4.2% compared to the end of 2025, indicating a recovery in chemical prices and potential improvement in the profitability of chemical enterprises [4]. Group 2: Policy Guidance and Supply-Side Optimization - Since 2025, the government has issued various guiding documents related to "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth," including the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" [5]. - Recent policies aimed at "carbon reduction," "environmental protection," and "cancellation of export tax rebates" are expected to suppress low-level repeated construction and disorderly expansion in the industry, promoting the clearing of existing supply [5]. - Leading enterprises with scale effects, low energy consumption technologies, and compliance with environmental regulations are likely to gain higher market shares and face increased entry barriers in their industries [5]. Group 3: Global Competitive Landscape - European chemical enterprises are facing significant operational pressures due to energy costs and environmental regulations, leading to a sixfold increase in capacity closures from 2022 to 2025, with a total loss of 37 million tons, accounting for 9% of Europe's total chemical capacity [6]. - In contrast, Chinese chemical enterprises have seen a significant increase in export volumes, with the monthly average export quantity index for chemical raw materials and products in 2025 reaching approximately 113.0, indicating a year-on-year growth of about 13.0% [6][7]. - This trend not only helps domestic enterprises absorb new production capacity but also significantly enhances the global market share and brand influence of Chinese chemical products [7]. Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Profitability - Following a period of concentrated expansion, capital expenditure in the chemical industry has entered a phase of contraction or stabilization, with fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector declining by 8% year-on-year in 2025 [8]. - As downstream demand improves, the high-quality capacity invested in previously will lead to the release of scale effects, significantly restoring the profitability of chemical enterprises [8]. - The improved supply-demand dynamics are expected to provide strong upward valuation elasticity for these enterprises [8].