【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的1月经济：数量篇

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of the Lunar New Year timing on various economic indicators, suggesting that January's data may show favorable year-on-year comparisons due to the earlier holiday last year [1][5]. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - As of January 22, coal-fired power plants in China reported a cumulative power generation increase of 4.6% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of 8.5% in December [1][6]. - Industrial operating rates showed mixed results, with steel production rates improving year-on-year, while chemical production rates declined. Notably, the operating rate for automotive steel tires increased significantly [1][7]. - By the end of January, the average operating rate for high furnaces across 247 enterprises rose by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, while coking enterprises saw a decline of 1.7 percentage points [7][8]. Group 2: Steel Production - Key enterprises in the steel sector experienced a month-on-month increase in crude steel production of 11.3%, with a year-on-year decline of 4.5% [2][9]. - As of January 30, rebar production from major steel mills increased by 6.4% month-on-month and 1.0% year-on-year, while hot-rolled coil production saw a month-on-month rise of 1.5% but a year-on-year decline of 1.8% [2][9]. Group 3: Construction and Infrastructure - The funding availability rate for construction sites decreased by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a lack of momentum in physical work [11][12]. - The asphalt operating rate fell to 26.2% in January, down 2.2 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting a decline in construction activity [11][12]. Group 4: Consumer Demand and Sales - Passenger vehicle retail sales saw a significant year-on-year decline of 28% in early January, attributed to the end of tax exemptions and the timing of the Lunar New Year [18][19]. - Home appliance sales continued to show negative growth, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines declining by 37.5% to 22.2% year-on-year during the first half of January [19][20]. Group 5: External Demand and Trade - External demand remained relatively stable, with domestic ports reporting a 7.7% year-on-year increase in container throughput from January 5 to 25 [21][22]. - The shipping volume of containers from China to the U.S. decreased by 9.5% year-on-year, indicating some challenges in international trade [21][22]. Group 6: Summary Insights - January's high-frequency data suggests that industrial sectors may show notable year-on-year improvements due to the Lunar New Year timing, while external demand remains stable. However, the durable consumer goods sector may face high base pressures [25].