华尔街见闻·2026-02-02 07:57Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in precious metals is attributed to a technical liquidation caused by overcrowded positions and margin increases, rather than a fundamental reversal in market logic [2][12]. Market Performance - iShares Silver Trust fell 28.5% to $75.44, marking the largest single-day drop in history; SPDR Gold Shares decreased by 10.3% to $444.95 [3]. - Silver's volatility surged to extreme levels not seen since the global financial crisis and COVID-19 lockdowns, with ETF nominal trading volume exceeding $32 billion [4]. Margin Requirement Increase - The immediate trigger for the sell-off was the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's announcement of increased margin requirements, which forced many leveraged positions to liquidate before the weekend [6][10]. - Gold's maintenance margin was raised from 6% to 8%, and silver's from 11% to 15%, effective after Monday's close [10]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from Morgan Stanley maintain a bullish outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by central bank purchases and investor demand [8]. - Morgan Stanley expresses caution regarding silver, noting the lack of clear structural buyers like central banks, and anticipates deeper corrections for silver compared to gold [9]. Technical Adjustments - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the recent market adjustments should not be over-interpreted, as they reflect a technical cleansing rather than a fundamental shift [11][13]. - The extreme volatility is seen as a result of leverage, retail enthusiasm, and momentum chasing, rather than changes in core market trends [12]. Future Outlook - The macro environment is expected to remain favorable for physical assets, with Goldman Sachs highlighting the importance of the new Federal Reserve chair's appointment [15]. - Yardeni Research notes that the fundamental environment should continue to support precious metals, despite the need to digest recent extreme volatility [16].